On the morning of February 28, the U.S. military and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a campaign to strike Iran, targeting defense and intelligence facilities, as well as the private residences of senior officials and generals. Tehran fired missiles in retaliation towards Israel.
Iran is a major oil producer located across from the Arabian Peninsula via the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. Therefore, the conflict could lead to a reduction in global oil supply and push prices higher, according to experts.
Sources from Reuters indicate that several major oil and gas corporations and leading trading companies have temporarily halted the transportation of crude oil and fuel through the Strait of Hormuz.
At the close of trading on Friday (February 27), Brent crude was priced at around $73 per barrel, a 20% increase since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, WTI was trading around $67 per barrel. According to William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, even if the conflict is quickly contained, Brent crude prices could still rise to about $80 per barrel, the peak level during the 12-day confrontation in Iran in June 2025.
If the situation persists and affects supply, prices could soar to around $100. At that point, global inflation could increase by an additional 0.6-0.7 percentage points.
Mr. Warren Patterson, Head of Commodity Analysis at ING Investment Bank (Netherlands), also believes that short and targeted attacks similar to those last year could push oil prices up to around $80 per barrel. If there is no disruption in oil supply, the price increase would only be short-lived.
A worse scenario would be larger-scale attacks by the U.S. and Israel compared to last year, leading to a fierce retaliation from Tehran. This would jeopardize oil supplies from Iran, affecting the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Such a scenario puts 9 million barrels of crude oil and 6 million barrels of oil products transported daily at risk.
Mr. Warren Patterson warns that the global oil market is currently not as abundant as expected. Supply disruptions from Kazakhstan earlier this year have tightened production. Additionally, some parties’ reluctance to import Russian oil has added pressure to the non-sanctioned oil market.
In light of this situation, he believes that if the Strait of Hormuz is partially disrupted, including oil tankers being attacked or seized, Brent crude prices could initially spike to $100, then stabilize at $80-90 per barrel. Only if the strait is completely blocked would prices reach $140 per barrel, but that is unlikely to happen.
Not only oil, but gold prices are also expected to continue rising as investors rush to buy. Since the beginning of the year, this precious metal has increased by 22%. A survey by Kitco shows that Wall Street and individual investors agree that gold prices will rise next week.
The conflict could also increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. However, Bitcoin does not benefit from this. This cryptocurrency is no longer seen as a safe haven, dropping 2% on February 28 and losing more than 25% of its value over the past two months.
The currency market will also not be immune to volatility. According to experts, the movement of the USD depends on the intensity of the conflict. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) points out that the USD index fell by about 1% during the attack in June 2025. However, this decline was only short-lived and reversed after 3-4 days.
CBA believes that in the current context, the extent of the decline will depend on the scale and duration of the conflict. “If it drags on and disrupts oil supply, the USD will strengthen against most other currencies, except for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The U.S. is a net energy exporter, so it benefits from high oil and gas prices due to supply disruptions,” the CBA expert group stated.
Considered a safe haven during chaotic times, the Swiss franc is expected to continue to appreciate. This currency has risen 3% against the USD since the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile, the Israeli shekel may experience the opposite trend. This currency fell 5% at the beginning of the conflict in June 2025 and also reacted after Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April 2024 and when Iran fired missiles at Israel in October of the same year. All these events occurred within a short period, so the shekel also recovered quickly.